Towards a Semi-Quantitative Approach for Assessing Evacuation Scenarios in the Context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México—The Case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan

Volcanic exposure implies multiple hazards for human settlements. The identification of the potential that volcanic activity can entail is a challenge requiring assessing specific situations determined place would face. Popocatépetl, volcano in centre México, represents significant hazard source, and it located within densely populated region with more than 20 million people. Despite existence colour-based alert level system current volcano, relevant to assess which local scenarios are likely depending on numerous variables, namely, related distance from volcano. A semi-quantitative analysis was carried out based existing maps considering probability occurrence explosivity, taking settlement San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan as case study. This led hierarchised rank hazards, providing basis analysing through failure mode event analysis, tree analysis. process facilitates contextualisation challenges chains events emergency actions, evacuations, critical paths help identify aspects could hinder post-event response.